Middle East future hinges on which force emerges as main beneficiary of expected accord

ISTANBUL—Reformers and hard-liners in the Iranian regime have been jockeying for influence for decades. As the Islamic Republic now nears a landmark nuclear agreement with the U.S. and other world powers, the Middle East’s future depends on which force emerges as the deal’s main beneficiary.

Will the accord empower the more pragmatic factions interested in normalizing Iran’s relations with the West, even as the regime maintains repression at home? Or, as some of Iran’s neighbors fear, will the financial windfall from the lifting of sanctions enable the hard-liners to step up the export of Iran’s Islamic revolution throughout the region?

Relative moderates such as President Hasan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif have invested much political capital to bring Iran to the cusp of a nuclear deal. Their domestic supporters have raised expectations that the accord, which is due to be completed by June 30, will usher in a new era of regional cooperation.

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This article was written by Yaroslav Trofimov for The Wall Street Journal on May 28, 2015. Yaroslav Trofimov writes a weekly column, Middle East Crossroads, about the region stretching from West Africa to Pakistan. He joined the Journal in 1999 and previously served as Rome, Middle East and Singapore-based Asia correspondent, and as bureau chief in Afghanistan and Pakistan.