Alwaght- It was very hard to imagine only after 7 months from the attack on the Russian SU-24 aircraft by Turkey’s F-16 fighter (24th of November, 2015) which damaged the relations between Russia and Turkey and started war of words between Erdogan and Putin, the situation would change to the point that in Erdogan’s visit to Russia in 8th of July, the two parties would refer to each other as friends and allies.

Erdogan’s visit to Russia was important in many aspects, for start, it was Erdogan’s first foreign travel since the failed coup attempt 0n 15 July. This not only showed how the Justice and Development Party (AKP) leaders’ approach towards regional interests has changed, but also was also a good presentation of the considerable role of cooperation and alliance with Russia in Turkey’s new foreign policy.

The fundamental question that will be the topic of speculation and political analysis, will be about Turkey’s new role in the international and regional alliances and factions, within a scenario planned by Erdogan for the country’s future after the coup. Any form of prediction about this issue, is combatant upon understanding certain assumptions about other questions and problems, which will be the main driving force of a comprehensive analysis. Questions like how much playing the “West card” has resolved the strategic needs of Turkey in regional and international (mainly between the West and Turkey) issues? And is Turkey frustrated at its partnership with the West?

Understanding concerns of AKP in regard ti Turkey’s foreign policies, one can also realize reasons behind the rotation and alteration of the country’s foreign policy, Particularly towards Russia.

Syrian Kurds and Russia’s Support

The most important aspect Syria’s developments, which has caused concerns for Turkey is the activities of Kurds in the country. Turkey wishes not to have a neighboring Kurd-centered integral political unit, similar to Iraqi Kurdistan Region and considers it a threat to its national interests in Syria’s developments. In reality, peace talks with the PKK and Erdogan’s strategy for political and peaceful resolution of deep-rooted and long-term national identity gap has failed, and it is hard to imagine this issue ending with the convergence of Kurds in Turkey.

Russia's recent cooperation with the Y.p.g militants based in Sheikh Maksoud, has evoked the concern for Turkey that the continued hostilities towards Russia could result in strengthening the military might of Kurds, and Russia’s support for the independence movement of Rojava. Within the February of 2016, for several times, the Turkish army attacked the Democratic Union Party forces in the Azaz region, located in north of Aleppo and near Turkey’s borders, which led to Russia alerting Ankara about their intervention, in the event of ground operation against Kurds in Syria. On this basis it seems Erdogan wants to influence the relations between Russia and Kurds in the future developments of Syria.

Putting Pressure on the West

The failed coup attempt in Turkey, resulted in a wide wave of arrests and deportations of Erdogan’s opponents in various military, educational, judicial, and executive institutions. They were charged with conspiring with coup leaders or having intellectual dependence on the Gülen movement (led by wealthy influential US-based Turk cleric Fethullah Gülen). The number of arrests and prosecutions has exceeded 47,000, which has been faced with widespread opposition from Western countries and human rights organizations. Amnesty International has reported on the torture of prisoners in Turkish jails following the recent attempted coup in this country, the reports stressed that a number of defendants and prisoners have no way of communication with their lawyers or families and have not been informed of the charges against them.

On the other hand, in response to the potential return of the death penalty, by reviewing the Turkish institution by the Justice and Development Party, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission announced that in this case, the Turkey-EU negotiations will be completely cut off.

While Turkey considers the YPG militia a terrorist group and aims to cut off logistical support of terrorists and the Syrian Kurds by its Western allies, the arrival of People’s Protection Units in West Euphrates in order to regain the control of Manbij with aerial support from US (August, 2016) angered the Turkish rulers, and following the mentioned events, Erdogan declared: “Right now, there is a serious project, a plan being implemented in northern Syria. And on this project and plan lay the insidious aims of those who appear as 'friends'.” Based on the general reactions, Erdogan has come to the conclusion that West is planning to overthrow his government by supporting the coup plotters. So, Erdogan sees the process of repairing Turkey’s relations with Russia, as a leverage on Western parties, and wishes to put pressure on the West and get them to ignore the suppression and elimination of internal dissent, also, establish a milder and flexible approach from European parties, in Turkey’s accession negotiations to the EU, and prioritize Turkey’s concerns for stopping the strengthening of Kurds for instrumental use against Assad.

Turkey’s Economic Requirements

Many experts familiar with Turkey’s developments believe that main reasons behind AKP’s preservation of power since 2003 in the parliament elections are people’s support of Erdogan against coup, the ruling party’s success to create economic growth and increase the general welfare of Turkish citizens, especially the poor and low-income residents. Facilitating the living conditions by reducing the rate of inflation, Increasing salaries in various sectors of society as well as reducing the foreign debt, and also increasing investments in Turkey and creating optimal opportunities all around this country, caused the upward shift of the descending variables of this country within the last decades, which as a result, turned Turkey into the 17th economic power of the world.

However, after shutting down Russian aircraft that increased tensions between the two countries, Russia imposed economic sanctions on Turkey. The trading volume between the two countries that had been reached up to 30 billion dollars before the sanctions, quickly fell to less than 10 billion dollars after the sanctions were imposed. These sanctions targeted fields that made Turkey most vulnerable, including tourism, agriculture, food, and the energy sectors. Given that more than 50% of Turkey’s required gas is supplied by Russia, and because the Turkish-Stream pipeline that carries Russian gas to Europe via Turkey is vital to this country’s energy requirements and sustainable development, the sanctions related to energy could be considered the most traumatic part of the economic punishment of Turkey.

Therefore it can be concluded that Turkey’s compromise policy, primarily aims to resume the Russian-Turkish cooperation in the fields of energy, trade and tourism, and secondarily, by continuing to put pressure on West, seeks to create groundworks to advance Turkey’s interests in relations with West, and regional developments, especially in order to compete with Iran.

By Alwaght