The winner of this year’s Nobel peace prize is to be named on Friday morning, putting an end to a period of speculation and volatile betting.Past experience, however, suggests that bookies’ odds are an unreliable guide: the Oslo-based prize committee has shown itself to be leak-proof, inscrutable and quite capable of springing surprises, such as the award to Barack Obama only a few months into his tenure, and to the European Union in 2012.

Adding to the intrigue, the committee was embroiled in an unprecedented internal coup in March, when its Labour party chairman of five years was ousted by rightwingers and replaced by a former Conservative party leader and business executive, Kaci Kullmann Five. The committee’s decision on Friday will be scrutinised, in Norway at least, for signs of the political pendulum swinging.

 

Here are some of the contenders for this year’s prize:

Pope Francis

The Argentinian pontiff surged into the running after it emerged the Vatican had played a key role in brokering the re-establishment of relations between the US and Cuba last December. His successful visit to both countries last month and his enthusiastic embracing of the causes of social justice and stopping climate change have not hindered his chances, either.

 

His odds are improved by general popularity, a friendly demeanour and apparent flexibility on the interpretation of some Catholic dogma, such as the ban on the ordination of married priests. The image was tarnished somewhat by the news that he had met a Kentucky county clerk, Kim Davis, who had become a figurehead for American religious hardliners because of her her refusal to issue marriage licences to same-sex couples.

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