By The Guardian

Talks between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are a step towards a regional solution over Syria


All but unnoticed by the wider world, Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held an unscheduled tête-à-tête last week with the US's most despised bogeyman, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran.

Given deep disagreements over Syria, and Iranian anger at Turkey's decision to allow the US to deploy missile defence systems on its soil, the meeting at a regional economic summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, was something of a surprise.

Neither man gave much away after the encounter, but officials said ways of defusing the Syrian crisis were discussed. After a year or more of backing opposing sides, and with a military solution apparently beyond the reach of both Bashar al-Assad's regime and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, Iran and Turkey have a shared interest in calming things down.

The Syrian regime's reported agreement, strongly backed by Iran and Turkey, to begin a limited truce this weekend may be one result of this new approach. It also reflects a changing Turkish stance that puts new emphasis on forging a regional solution to the Syrian impasse in the absence of effective US, UN or other international action.

Turkey has been badly burned by the Syrian conflagration and feels let down by Washington and its European Nato allies, who have rebuffed its calls for border buffer areas, no-fly zones and armed humanitarian intervention. It has all but given up hope that either a re-elected Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will show a stronger lead.

An estimated 150,000 Syrian refugees have flooded over Turkey's southern frontier. Trade with Syria, once worth an annual $2.5bn (£1.5bn), has dwindled to a trickle. Resulting economic hardship and political instability in Hatay and other Turkish border provinces, home tolarge numbers of Arab Alevis who identify with Syria's ruling Alawite minority, has rung alarm bells in Ankara.

"Turkish policy on Syria was thrown into total confusion by Assad's refusal to stand down last year," said Cengiz Aktar, a leading Turkish commentator. "They were expecting him to go the way of Mubarak [in Egypt] and Gaddafi [in Libya], or better still Ben Ali [the Tunisian president who fled into exile]. But nothing of the kind happened … The US and Europe were not prepared to back any military operations and the Russians were doing their own thing … Turkey ran out of options."

To make matters worse, Turkish officials are convinced the Syrian regime, retaliating for Turkish support for the FSA, is aiding and abetting Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) separatist fighters, whose terror attacks on targets in south-east Turkey are at a 10-year high.

The PKK's Syrian offshoot, the Party of Unity and Democracy (PYD), which claims to represent Syria's Kurdish minority, has also profited from the chaos. Turkey worries the PYD may try to set up an autonomous region in northern Syria, akin to Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan regional government (KRG) in northern Iraq.

"Particularly alarming was the capture of several towns along the Turkish border by the PYD," said Gonul Tol, of the Centre for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute. "Turkey watched nervously as Kurdish groups took control of the towns after the withdrawal of Assad forces and hoisted the Kurdish flag over Syrian government buildings, along with posters of the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan," Tol wrote.

Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's foreign minister, told the Guardian in an interview conducted last week: "When the regime has withdrawn from certain places in Syria, sometimes they are giving weapons or other means to let the PKK control those parts of Syria … The PKK is trying to use the chaotic situation in the region for their own activities."

A recent spate of incidents along the 560-mile border has reinforced the impression the situation is spinning out of control. Turkish and Syrian military units exchanged fire repeatedly after a Syrian shell killed five Turkish civilians in a border town earlier this month.

And a huge diplomatic row broke out last week after Turkish fighter jets forced down a Syrian passenger plane en route from Russia to Damascus. Turkey claimed the plane was carrying military equipment, an allegation furiously denied in Moscow.

Security issues aside, Syria has become a massive political headache. Erdogan and Davutoglu have been heavily criticised for first engaging with Assad last year, in the belief they could talk him round, and then going to the other extreme this year, noisily demanding his resignation when they lacked the means to enforce it.

"They were naive. They bet that Assad would fall. And they were wrong," said a former national newspaper editor. "Erdogan is frustrated. He feels Assad sold him out. He takes everything personally."

Capitalising on opinion polls that show a large majority of Turks fears a war with Syria and opposes any kind of intervention, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People's party (CHP), rounded on Davutoglu, saying his famous policy of "zero problems with neighbours", adopted in 2002 as Ankara sought to re-establish itself as a regional superpower, was a flop.

Kilicdaroglu said Turkey was isolated over Syria, with only Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the KRG in Iraq and Hamas on its side. Against it were ranged Russia, China, Iran, Brazil and India.

"How can we describe the policy that put Turkey into this situation?"Kilicdaroglu asked. "Is this 'strategic depth' [a favourite Davutoglu concept] or strategic blindness? The process that resulted in Turkey becoming part of such a meaningless balance comes from a foreign minister whose incompetence is known by the entire world … You have to be a real idiot to do that."

Clear signs are now emerging that the government is changing tack, and that by mending fences with neighbours such as Iran, Russia, and maybe even Nouri al-Maliki's Iraq, it hopes to forge a binding Syrian solution that is guaranteed by the regional powers and bridges what at present is a growing Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. Part of this new approach, outlined by Erdogan, is to establish a set of parallel talks mechanisms bringing together Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which want Assad to resign, and Russia and Iran, who have resisted forced regime change.

Welcoming the move, the Hürriyet columnist Semih Idiz said Turkish policy on Syria had become a "rudderless ship" and a course correction was long overdue. "This represents a significant shift in position by Ankara … It was no more than a few months ago that Ankara looked coolly on any discussion on Syria which involved Russia and Iran," Idiz said.

Intriguingly, this revamped region-based approach may include a rapprochement with Israel. Ties ruptured in 2010 amid a bitter row over the deaths of nine Turkish activists aboard a Gaza aid flotilla that was stormed by Israeli commandos. Alarmed at events across its disputed Golan Heights border, Israel has put out diplomatic feelers, suggesting that at this time of crisis, Tel Aviv and Ankara should set aside old differences and work together.

Pinhas Avivi, a senior Israeli foreign ministry official and former ambassador to Turkey, offered bilateral talks on Syria this week. Turkey's public response has been cool so far, but political insiders say Ankara has a strong interest in making up.

Speaking to the Guardian, Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's foreign minister, said Turkey had always believed in a regional approach and was optimistic Russia, for example, with which he was maintaining regular high-level contacts, could be part of a solution.

While flatly rejecting suggestions his Syria policy had failed, he was adamant Assad would have to step down if a lasting settlement were to be secured. He said: "Every day I am asking myself, what more could be done to prevent this bloodshed. We have done everything … We have tried bilateral engagement with the regime to persuade them [to have] a transition process and help them go to a democratic system …

"For several months we tried, even before the Arab spring … We went to Damascus last August [2011] … He [Assad] accepted our step-by-step plan but after two, three days he did not fulfil his promise … We realised he was cheating us and trying to misuse his relationship with us.

"Still we have regional engagement with Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia … What else can we do? I think it would not be ethical at all to continue business as usual … Ethically and strategically our policy has been right. Ethically it is right because we are on the side of human rights, we are on the side of the rightful aspirations of Syrian people. Strategically it is right because we are on the right side of history.

"At the end of the day, this regime cannot continue the way it is, and the new elected government of Syria will be the best friend of Turkey."

 

The Iran Project is not responsible for the content of quoted articles.