27 Nov 2024
Saturday 29 September 2018 - 11:31
Story Code : 321377

EU blocking statute, SPV can derail US sanctions on Iran - Economist



Sputnik - European powers have partnered with Russia and China to create a new financial mechanism aimed at continuing trade with Iran, despite protests from the United States and its ongoing trade war with multiple world powers.



The vehicle is set tobypass American sanctions and tariffs, aswell asnormalize trade betweenthe EU, Eurasia and China byabandoning trade inUS dollars, potentially resetting the global economic order.


Sputnik spoke toPyeIan, Los Angeles-based senior economics analyst, private equity executiveand commentatoratNewsbud.com. Ianpossesses a background inpreciousmetals commodity trading and strategic planning.


Sputnik: Is the European Union's Blocking Statue an effective mechanism foraverting financial sanctions?


PyeIan:On the surface, the EU's "blocking statute" acts asa counter-measure toreimposed US sanctions onIran. American sanctions threaten European businesses withlegal actions based onnoncompliance and appear topose grave risks toEU firms seeking access toUS markets and financial systems.


The EU blocking statute has drawn the ire ofWashington, who sees European allies as disloyal' onits foreign policy diktat and has provoked US officials toforce European firms tochoose betweenworking inIran or the US.


Yet the deeper issue is less betweenbetting onIran vs. the US, buton a rising Eurasia bloc, including China, Russia, Turkey and an increasing number oftheir allies and partners, all whom stand withIran and wish topreserve thethree-year-oldJoint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPoA), or Iran Nuclear Agreement. Iran has yet toviolate the agreement and wishes tomove away fromWashington'sunilateralpolicies whileembracing global multipolar priorities intrade, diplomacy and security independence.


Sputnik: What does the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) entail? How can European businesses circumvent US-imposed sanctions?


PyeIan:The EU's three most important members-Germany, the United Kingdom, and France-set upthe Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) asa "clearing house" that will allow continued business and trade withIran. It is one ofseveral options that European countries are discussing withthe European Commission tocreate independent payment channels forconducting business and trade withIran.


The SPV ultimately represents an act ofdefiance byEU states againstWashington's unilateral decisions onIran, and the EU is holding fastidiously totheJCPoAdespite Washington pulling outof the deal inMay this year. While Berlin, London, and Paris are driving the SPV, other EU member-states such asItaly, which is keen onparticipating, could join if the SPV is implemented.


The SPV represents a collaborative effort ofIran's EU business partners tocircumvent US dollar dependency, where Iran could export oil toSpanish, Greek or other EU firms toaccumulate Euros which Tehran could use topay forgoods and services exported fromthe EU. This would not require US dollars and would meet US sanctions requirements fornot doing business withIran currency-wise while promoting crucial Iranian exports tothe EU such asoil, forwhich there are few replacements available.


This is evident inthe joint statement betweenChina, France, Russia, Germany, France, and Britain, which "welcomed practical proposals tomaintain and develop payment channels [] tofacilitate payments related toIran's exports, including oil." The members intend to "protect the freedom oftheir operators topursue business withIran," which asserts Europe's collective sovereignty and independence fromWashington.


Conversely, Tehran sought the SPV tocounterreimposed sanctions triggered byUS president Donald Trump's withdrawal fromthe Iran Deal and sees the SPV asa means topull its EU and Eurasian partners closer ina unique blowback' move againstUS economic warfare.


Sputnik: Just how difficult was it forthe EU todevelop the Special Purpose Vehicle? What does the SPV signal forinternational markets?


PyeIan:The EU previously struggled todevise a workable legal framework toshield its companies fromUS sanctions, which are set tocome intoeffect inNovember, and has tried toprevent firms frompulling outof Iran. As a result, the Iranian Riallost abouttwo-thirds ofits value this year, hitting a record low againstthe USD this month.


EU High Representative forForeign Affairs and Security Policy Frederica Mogherini stated that the SPV "could be open toother partners ofthe world", which almost certainly includes China, Russia, Turkey, and India, whom Iran enjoys close relations and also are circumventing US sanctions inother ways.JCPoAsignatures Russia and China also ultimately seek protection viathe SPV.


Sputnik: What are some ofthe unintended consequences' ofUS foreign policy regarding sanctions and tariffs? How could both Washington and global powers respond?


PyeIan:The US nonetheless has the power toexpand anti-Iranian sanctions viasecondary sanctions againstfirms participating inthe SPV scheme, butdoing so could backfire asthese would further alienate an already globally unpopular Trump administration, who chooses tothrow trade tariffs and sanctions againstmultiple nations aroundthe world, be they friend or foe.


Doing so would beg the question overviable stakes forthe US and itsAtlanticistpartners, who price oil and currency benchmarks inUS dollars tomaintain dollar hegemony inorder todominate others, and conversely, forUS debts and deficits tocontinue growing withoutany fiduciary checks and balances.


A key consideration onhow the SPV will function and evolve involves oil and natural gas pricing and trading. Iran, Russia, China and their Eurasian and southern hemispheric partners were already reducing dollardependencefor energy benchmarks and trading. One could argue that America's haste touse trade tariffs and sanctions againstChina, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and others was due toEurasian and Latin American momentum away fromthe45-year-oldpetrodollar mechanism foroil pricing, trading, and rent recycling.


Yet, ina rushed effort tostop this momentum, Washington could be expediting it. For example, the SPV could dovetail intosupporting thepetro-yuan,petro-ruble, or agold-backed currency offeringsat global prices fortrading oil and gas, amongothers. Such development could potentially harm the seemingly perennial confidence inthe already over-indebted fiat dollar.


Opposite this, the SPV's rushed development also evidences the increasingly Eurasia-leaning priorities ofan exasperated EU, which has an economy underdire strain due tosystematic deflation and its Club Med' southern nations witheconomic difficulties due toincurable debt burdens, austerity measures, and political instabilities.


If Washington cuts offan already fairly isolated emerging economy likeIranthe worlds 6th largest oil exporter and retains the second largest reserves ofnatural gasusing opaque political reasoning, it doesn't bode well forgarnering cooperation withthe EU while also trying toprevent a second global economic crisis due todebt levels many times that in2006-2008.


In fact, Washington's planned reduction ofIranian oil exports to "zero" byNovember 4 could veritably tip things over' forthe petrodollar. Iranian oil exports cannot be extinguished withany other crude supplies, considering that the Saudis have never proven their emergency outputcapacityto meet over2 million barrels per day.


The Americans also cannot make upsupplies themselves, and any political operation'Atlanticistsmay have planned totake effect inIran afterNovember 4 had better happen fast and go without a hitch' inorder toprevent WTI and Brent fromsurpassing $150 per barrel, thereby triggering aggressive recessions, popping debt bubbles, and ushering ina formal dollar crisis.



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