14 Nov 2024
Monday 10 June 2019 - 18:13
Story Code : 351388

Man on a mediation mission: Japan's Abe heads to Iran

Man on a mediation mission: Japan

Bourse & Bazar - Japan's Prime Minister heads toIran this week on a rare diplomatic mission, hoping to ease tensions betweenthe Islamic Republic and Tokyo's key ally Washington.


Tehran is locked in a bitter standoff with the US after president DonaldTrump withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal last year.


Washington has now reimposed sanctions and shifted troops to the region,putting military and economic pressure on Iran, including by forcing US allieslike Japan to stop purchasing Iranian oil.


Japanese government officials say Abe will not present Tehran with a listof demands, or deliver a message from Washington, and instead want to positionJapan as a neutral intermediary.


That could prove useful, said Michael Bosack, special adviser forgovernment relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies.


"Japan carries none of the historical or religious baggage of otherpotential mediators... (and) has demonstrated its willingness to go its ownway on Middle East policy," he told AFP.


"These factors better position Abe for engagement with Ayatollah Khameneiand mean that Japanese-proposed options could allow hardliners in Iran toentertain proposed off-ramps, without the potential fallout that could comefrom accepting 'Western' solutions."


Abe will meet President Hassan Rouhani and the country's Supreme LeaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei on the June 12-14 tripthe first time a Japaneseprime minister has visited Iran since 1978, a year before the country'srevolution.


Against that backdrop, Japan is hoping to lower the temperature, officialssay, with Abe winning Trump's blessing for the mediation trip when the USleader visited Tokyo last month.


"We believe it is extremely important that, at the leadership level, wecall on Iran as a major regional power to ease tension, to adhere to thenuclear agreement and to play a constructive role for the region's stability,"Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said ahead of the trip.


Intermediary


Iranian commentators said Abe could ferry messages between the two sides.


"Mr. Abe's visit comes right after meeting Mr. Trump in Japan, thereforethe Americans are interested to use this channel," Ebrahim Rahimpour, a formerdeputy foreign minister, told Iran's Shargh daily ahead of the trip.


Iran will "announce our rights and stances and the other side can announcethe messages that could be the US president's message," he said.


But while Japan has long-standing ties with Tehran and warm relations withWashington, experts say Abe has little leverage with either side and mediationwill be an uphill struggle.


The trip by the Japanese PM "faces substantial obstacles and is unlikely tobear fruit," said Tobias Harris, an analyst at Teneo consultancy group, in anote on the visit.


"While Japan has good relationships with countries on both sides, theserelationships do not necessarily translate into influence," he added.


'Shuttle diplomacy'?


Japan is not just the messengerits own interests are also at stake:before US sanctions were reimposed, Tokyo imported around five percent of itsoil from Iran and it would suffer from rising crude prices.


The trip also offers Abe a rare role as international statesman,particularly given Tokyo's disappointing recent diplomatic track record.


Efforts this year to resolve a long-running standoff with Russia over astring of disputed islands have run aground.


And Japan has also found itself out of the loop on perhaps the mostpressing diplomatic challenge in its backyard: North Korea.


Abe "needs a diplomatic stunt as he faces an impasse on Russia and NorthKorea," said Tetsuro Kato, political science professor at Tokyo's WasedaUniversity.


But analysts cautioned that expectations would stay low for now.


"Japan has never played an active role in Middle Eastern problems," Katotold AFP. "I don't expect much in the way of results."


Bosack said it would be "unrealistic" to expect quick outcomes from thevisit.


"Right now, the focus is mitigating military conflict, which means Abe canemploy shuttle diplomacy to keep communication going," he said.


That shuttle diplomacy alone may be enough to de-escalate tensions."

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