24 Nov 2024
Monday 17 December 2018 - 10:09
Story Code : 330977

Iran gov't confident OPEC will reach deal on output cuts



Sputnik - Iranian officials say OPEC's recent decision to cut output will reflect positively on the Islamic Republic's economy, as Tehran is still hoping to maintain some of its oil exports despite stringent US sanctions.




Kristian Rouz Iranian Oil MinisterBijan Zanganeh has said he is confident OPEC will be able toimplement the new roundof cuts tocrude production aimed atboosting prices. The official's remarks come afterthe oil cartel and non-OPEC member Russia met inVienna earlier this month and agreed inprinciple toreduce their combined output.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials are also hopeful that the Islamic Republic will be able toexport some ofits oil despitethe re-enforcement ofUS sanctions, and an apparent reluctance ofIran's traditional customers tocontinue trading withTehran.

In a statement onhis Twitter account Sunday, Oil Minister BijanZanganeh welcomed OPEC's willingness tocut production inorder tosupport international oil prices. He suggested internal political differences withinthe cartel should not become an obstacle toOPEC's common interest ofbolstering world oil prices.
"OPEC has shown the capacity inwhich members can hold talks and reach important results regarding their common interests despitehaving the most intense political disputes or even military conflicts (such asduring the Iran-Iraq war)," Zanganeh wrote.


The minister's remarks drew particular scrutiny inthe wake ofOPEC's alleged defiance ofa warning fromUS President Donald Trump, who urged the cartel, ahead ofthe 7 December meeting inVienna, toallow oil prices tofall. Tehran has repeatedly urged its traditional trade partners torebuke the latest US sanctions and tocontinue purchasing Iranian oil.

However, the outlook forthe Iranian oil industry is uncertain. South Korea one ofIran's key international customers slashed its crude imports fromthe Islamic Republic last month, inline withthe US embargo.

Seoul's move came despitea waiver fromthe US, allowing South Korea tocontinue trade withIran forthe time being. According toseveral reports, South Korean buyers have been intalks withTehran overthe pastfew weeks, seeking tosign new contracts yet, tono avail so far.

South Korea's customs records show the nation's imports ofIranian oil dropped 57.9 percent to7.15 mln tonnes betweenJanuary and November, or some 157,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared toa total of17 mln tonnes forthe entirety of2017.

Another major customer ofIranian oil exporters, India, has also shown signs ofwinding downits imports despitehigh fuel prices driving upIndia's domestic inflation rate inrecent months.

Last month, India imported some 276,000 bpd ofIranian oil a 41-percent decline fromOctober, and a 4-percent year-on-year drop. The South Asian nation is currently allowed tobuy some 300,000 bpd ofIranian oil underthe existing US waiver, which is valid forsix months sincethe introduction ofWashington's oil embargo inearly November.

These tendencies suggest that even though Iran's core global trade partners are still allowed tobuy Iranian oil, they are already bracing fora full crackdown onthe Islamic Republic's energy exports next year.

In light ofthis, higher oil prices appear tobe inIran's best interest atthis point, asthe Islamic Republic is trying toaccumulate asmuch cash reserves it can beforeUS sanctions take full effect. Hence Iran's praise forOPEC's actions, asTehran is hopeful assome market analysts have suggested oil prices could go upto $100/bbl early next year if the oil cartel agrees toimplement substantial output cuts.

For its part, the US is seeking toboost investment inits own energy infrastructure ahead ofOPEC's output cuts. US oil producers inTexas and North Dakota are willing toship oil ata substantial discount due tothe massive overproduction inthe Permian and Bakken oilfields.

However, the US is currently lacking the required infrastructure totransport all ofthat oil torefineries and international customers.

All ofthis might suggest international oil prices are infor another significant increase inthe coming weeks, replenishing the budgets ofoil producing nations ofthe Middle East, and spur investment inthe US energy and transportation sectors.

It is still unclear atwhat price point the global oil market will eventually balance outand settle.

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